Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.899334 1.053581 1.226227 1.433808 1.676690 1.951981 2.287866
2024-10-27 0.626035 0.820850 1.064414 1.391429 1.819422 2.361196 3.100338
2024-11-03 0.502140 0.713303 0.998909 1.413723 2.001742 2.807054 3.996954
2024-11-10 0.443560 0.672428 1.002389 1.513246 2.285971 3.414229 5.193178
2024-11-17 0.387800 0.621798 0.978242 1.561382 2.494271 3.933798 6.334598
2024-11-24 0.336491 0.567176 0.936237 1.570463 2.637085 4.366205 7.398294
2024-12-01 0.291760 0.514640 0.887478 1.557527 2.736852 4.736489 8.406890
2024-12-08 0.256366 0.471611 0.846833 1.549685 2.839946 5.120528 9.487613
2024-12-15 0.230432 0.440889 0.822184 1.564639 2.982385 5.587713 10.778454
2024-12-22 0.199338 0.395728 0.764649 1.509654 2.985930 5.799831 11.619126
2024-12-29 0.192007 0.394843 0.789277 1.614014 3.307165 6.649235 13.811823
2025-01-05 0.168879 0.359046 0.741128 1.566780 3.319528 6.895551 14.822814
2025-01-12 0.147995 0.325417 0.693860 1.516994 3.324582 7.137925 15.885228
2025-01-19 0.130061 0.295558 0.650521 1.469813 3.329607 7.383691 16.999935
2025-01-26 0.120244 0.282083 0.640203 1.493231 3.492667 7.991333 19.013470
2025-02-02 0.117469 0.284200 0.664475 1.598366 3.856428 9.095394 22.341256
2025-02-09 0.111001 0.276638 0.665569 1.649220 4.099833 9.956125 25.218109
2025-02-16 0.102568 0.263035 0.650549 1.658814 4.244307 10.601692 27.661140
2025-02-23 0.093729 0.247092 0.627608 1.645147 4.328146 11.109460 29.827719
2025-03-02 0.086124 0.233216 0.607897 1.636863 4.424508 11.661541 32.194268
2025-03-09 0.080463 0.223659 0.597890 1.652661 4.586768 12.405690 35.192521
2025-03-16 0.072019 0.205315 0.562428 1.594571 4.540149 12.590723 36.670268
2025-03-23 0.071471 0.208930 0.586371 1.704826 4.978831 14.154545 42.316812